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I was reading through Al Jazeera:

British officials have responded with tighter measures. In March, the UK government said Iran would be required to register any political influence activity inside the country, citing “escalating aggression” from its intelligence services.

In May, UK police arrested seven Iranians over alleged threats to national security, which Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced as “suspicious and unwarranted”.

In scenarios where foreign countries operate intelligence on the soil of host country, no foreign intelligence would straight forwardly come up claiming it is us (dumb to do so). In that sense, no law enforcement can simply march into embassies, what is UK trying to achieve here? Iran can work through embassy to carry these alleged activities and still carry covert operations. Similar to source cited above, Irani intelligence, i.e. agents could seek asylum in ally embassies, hide in let us say, Lebanon embassy in UK and carry these operations.

My question is, if at all effective, what is UK trying to reduce here? Intelligence services won't simply come up to UK and declare themselves openly as politically inducing agents in the country. It is like US requiring Russian intelligence to disclose their influence on Presidential Election.

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    "In that sense, no law enforcement can simply march into embassies": in no sense can law enforcement simply march into embassies unless the ambassador has invited them to do so. Even if the UK has incontrovertible evidence that a crime has been committed on embassy grounds, agents of the UK government are prevented from entering without permission by the terms of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
    – phoog
    Commented 2 days ago

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This is about diplomatic relations. Such measures primarily signal that relations are strained. It's the diplomatic equivalent of a cease and desist letter.

The measures don't need to be effective in the sense that police enforces them, although some enforcement by government agencies is possible, e.g., permits for events might be denied. The government is always free to escalate to more serious diplomatic measures (such as declaring Iranian diplomats persona non grata). That's a political and not a legal decision.

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Intelligence services won't simply come up to UK and declare themselves openly as politically inducing agents in the country

If the UK can develop sufficient evidence of activities requiring registration by people who haven't registered, they can charge these people with a crime. If the accused is a diplomat, this can be used to justify expelling the diplomat through a declaration that the diplomat is persona non grata under the terms of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. No justification is necessary for such a declaration, but having a justification makes the declaration seem more reasonable, potentially reducing the impact on the UK's standing in the international community.

If the accused is not a diplomat then the crime can serve as the basis for removing the person from the country; without the registration requirement, removal might otherwise be difficult or impossible.

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idle hands are the devil's workshop

The solution, if there is real concern from the UK, is just to expel some embassy staff. They don't need to be charged with anything, they can just be declared undesirable.

This is a standard form of expressing disapproval between nations.

Additionally, and to the point of the proverb, to engage in this kind of mischief you need the staff to do it. It's not going to the ambassador himself (I take it there is little risk from Iran that "herself" would apply), nor is it going to be his immediate support staff, such as folk dealing with visas. Their work requires them to mostly remain on embassy grounds.

No, more likely the UK can prune out some economic or cultural liaison folk. Those are the types of staff that typically get accused of spying and get expelled, because their work plausibly takes them off embassies. Or they may even have some specific people in mind.

It's not like the UK has much that much need for economic links with sanctioned Iran. Or as if it needs smooth travel to Iran, as Iran is fond of both hostage diplomacy and executing dual nationals on occasion.

For the same reason, retaliation by Iran upon the staffing of UK embassies in Iran is likely not that worrisome either.

Again, this is predicated on whether the UK really wants to pursue this seriously. I doubt there is much "fat" left in the staffs on both sides already.

What if it is not embassy staff doing this?

(which diverges from the title of the question)

If the folk in question are not embassy staff, but are on visas, then just revoke their visas and deport them.

The main problem would be if the Iranians in question had permanent resident rights. Many Western countries have large Iranian expat communities (who are generally quite hostile to Iran's current government). In that case, they would probably have to be charged with some sanctionable offense. Such as not following registration procedures.

In either case you can still expel some diplomats to signal disapproval.

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In scenarios where foreign countries operate intelligence on the soil of host country, no foreign intelligence would straight forwardly come up claiming it is us (dumb to do so).

True, if we understand your "intelligence" as covert intelligence. But "political influence activities" are not necessarily either covert activities or intelligence activities. Indeed, they are fundamentally political activities. It's right there in the term. Some such activities are among the primary duties of a foreign delegation. There is therefore good reason to suppose that Iran will register some political influence activities with the UK government.

In that sense, no law enforcement can simply march into embassies, what is UK trying to achieve here?

Basically correct. UK law enforcement technically could do exactly that, but they will not, because their own political leadership would not tolerate it. But it is possible to imagine circumstances in which that would change.

We have to speculate about the UK's actual objectives, but the effects are at least twofold:

  • by taking notice and making an official political response, the UK is sending a political message to Iran that they are displeased. The requirement they've placed is too minor to justify a strong diplomatic response, but it's a stage from which they can escalate.

  • by placing any requirement at all, the UK has created a political basis for taking action against anyone whom they find to be in violation. The most likely action (against anyone who is not a permanent resident) would be expulsion.

Iran can work through embassy to carry these alleged activities and still carry covert operations. Similar to source cited above, Irani intelligence, i.e. agents could seek asylum in ally embassies, hide in let us say, Lebanon embassy in UK and carry these operations.

That an operative found to be in violation might hide or otherwise attempt to avoid being apprehended by UK authorities is largely moot, because doing so after having been detected would not well serve either their operational or their underlying political objectives.

Note also that the referenced article's comments about UK police arresting Iranians over threats to national security seems to be a non sequitur. There is no indication that the UK would consider failure to comply with the new policy to constitute a threat to national security, and it's unclear whether the UK would attempt to arrest anyone believed to have violated the new policy. The policy does not, itself, appear to create a basis for doing so.

My question is, if at all effective, what is UK trying to reduce here? Intelligence services won't simply come up to UK and declare themselves openly as politically inducing agents in the country.

You've got that mixed up. Nothing here is about "politically introducing agents in[to] the country". Of course intelligence services enjoy some amount of support from their countries' embassies. Of course some embassy staff are covert intelligence officers. And of course the embassies, services, and operatives don't admit to any of that. Everyone recognizes this.

In addition to the effects already described, the UK probably hopes that this action will influence Iran to reduce covert political influence activities in-country, and / or to adjust the operating parameters of such activities in ways that make them less effective (in order to better evade detection).

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UK can expel diplomats. In extreme case, he can also close the iranian embassy. That is the ordinary way of handling it.

Simple defamation in the mass media is not the ordinary way.

Very likely, no such iranian activity has happened, or not above the usual extent.

Note the regularly appearing "news" about the Russians poisoning the peaceful and happy Western societies in the frame of a big conspiracy.

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    Russian propaganda campaigns in the west is a well-demonstrated fact. Russia is hardly the only one - the US also spreads propaganda in a number of other countries. The existence of covert operations is undeniable. That's like one of the primary activities of the CIA, for example.
    – NotThatGuy
    Commented 2 days ago
  • @NotThatGuy That is your opinion. Note the recent investigation in the CIA, as I can remember a previous USA president (maybe Obama) actually commanded them to fabricate news about Russian influence in the election (that had been obviously a pro-Trump and not a pro-Hillary influence. Calling the competitor as an agent of the enemy is an usual black campaign in elections).
    – Gray Sheep
    Commented 2 days ago
  • Btw, Starmer's popularity is about 20%, making his chance to win a re-election practically negligible. I think the real cause of this news is to decrease the disaster on the next election.
    – Gray Sheep
    Commented 2 days ago
  • Now that sounds like a conspiracy theory. Are you just blindly parroting Trump propaganda? Do you deny the existence of covert operations altogether? Because it would be wild if someone's that naive... when you also accept that there are similar operations from the other side, and you accept that with a much, much lower standard of evidence (basically: the authority you worship told you so), demonstrating your cherry-picking to validate your biases.
    – NotThatGuy
    Commented yesterday
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    You made a blanket and unsupported assertion about the existence of a conspiracy, despite not even being able to remember which president was the one involved. Meanwhile, I backed up my claim by citing a detailed breakdown of the evidence from a reliable source, which provides references to a bunch of sources (and it's not the only place one can find such breakdowns). But sure, keep telling yourself that *I'm* the conspiracy theorist here, for accepting the evidence instead of blindly believing your blanket assertion like you do.
    – NotThatGuy
    Commented yesterday

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